---
title: "UBS Raises Gold Price Target to $3,200 as Trump’s Tariffs Loom Large"
slug: ubs-raises-gold-price-target-to-3200-as-trumps-tariffs-loom-large
date: 2025-03-17
modified: 2026-04-07
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og_description: "UBS has become the latest bank to raise its gold price target, citing the increasing likelihood of a continued escalation in the global trade war. Analysts expect ongoing trade tensions"
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# UBS Raises Gold Price Target to $3,200 as Trump’s Tariffs Loom Large

UBS has become the latest bank to raise its gold price target, citing the increasing likelihood of a continued escalation in the global trade war. Analysts expect ongoing trade tensions to drive investors toward gold, the ultimate safe-haven asset.

In a report released on Monday, UBS analysts Wayne Gordon and Giovanni Staunovo stated that gold prices are expected to reach **$3,200 per ounce** over the next four quarters, up from their previous forecast of **$3,000 per ounce**. The escalating trade conflict further underscores gold’s role as a store of value in uncertain times.

UBS highlighted that **U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to implement broad reciprocal tariffs and additional industry-specific tariffs on April 2** presents an imminent risk event, likely to fuel continued safe-haven demand across the market.

### Gold Breaks $3,000 as Economic Concerns Mount

Last week, **spot gold prices surpassed the psychologically significant $3,000 per ounce level for the first time**. Analysts believe gold prices will continue to benefit from a deteriorating outlook for the U.S. economy.

Traders increasingly anticipate **further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year** as recession concerns grow. Wall Street’s unease about the U.S. economic outlook has intensified as Trump’s tariff policies take effect.

Last week, **Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for U.S. GDP growth in 2025 from 2.4% to 1.7%**.

> _“In other words, we are moving from a ‘Trump put’ to a ‘Fed put,'”_ UBS analysts commented.

From a long-term diversification perspective, UBS maintains that allocating **about 5% of a balanced U.S. dollar portfolio to gold** remains optimal.

### Growing Investment in Gold ETFs and Central Bank Demand

UBS analysts also highlighted that more funds are flowing into **gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs)**, with sustained ETF demand expected to play a key role in further price increases. Additionally, **strong demand from central banks** will continue to provide crucial support, with purchases projected to remain close to recent levels of approximately **1,000 metric tons per year**.

As of Monday, **spot gold prices were trading around $3,000 per ounce**. So far this year, gold prices have risen **approximately 14%**, marking a third consecutive year of strong growth momentum.

### Major Institutions Raise Gold Price Targets

In recent weeks, several major financial institutions have revised their gold price forecasts upward:

- **Goldman Sachs** recently increased its **year-end gold price target to $3,100**.
- **Macquarie Group** last week projected that **gold prices could surge to $3,500 per ounce by Q3 2025**.

With increasing economic uncertainty and trade tensions, gold continues to solidify its position as a premier safe-haven asset in global markets.

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